Summary of REGIONAL revenue and expenditure FORECASTS and DETAILS FOR DC, MD and VA

Forecast Revenues

Table 1 summarizes total estimated revenues by major TPB jurisdiction in year of expenditure dollars for the 30-year period from 2011 through 2040.  Year of expenditure dollars include assumed esca­lation for future years, and are a reflection of what dollars in each year would have to be expended.

The rows in the table show revenues for the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia jurisdictions with four modal breakouts:  highway, local transit, commuter rail, and WMATA support with each broken down into five source columns: Federal, state, local, private/‌tolls, and fares. The source of Toll/Bond/Private is comprised of a variety of sources and includes anticipated developer contributions.

WMATA regional revenues include “non-jurisdictional” fares, Federal grants, and other non-jurisdictional funds. At the bottom of the table, the WMATA Summary shows total aggregate revenues for WMATA (which already are included in prior rows of the table) categorized by the five funding source columns.

Table 1a, shows the forecast capital revenues (already included in Table 1)  by source  for the major regionally significant projects in the 2010 CLRP.  Revenues are identified for new expansion projects for both highways and public transportation, including the entire Dulles Rail corridor, HOT lanes and bus ser­vices on I-95/I-395, HOT lanes on the Virginia Beltway, the Columbia Pike streetcar in Virginia; the Intercounty Connector in Maryland, the Nice Bridge, the Purple Line, and the Corridor Cities Transitway in Maryland; and a District streetcar line, the 11th Street Bridge, and the South Capitol Street Corridor projects in the District.

Observations about Forecasted Revenues

Significant new revenue sources since the 2006 CLRP include a newly dedicated portion of sales taxes and of the vehicle titling tax in Maryland, additional motor fuel taxes and other taxes in the District of Columbia, additional toll and HOT lane revenues, and new local commercial and industrial revenues available for highways and public transportation in Virginia.  Despite the new sources, some highway expansion projects in Maryland, Virginia, and the District have been delayed or removed from the plan since the 2006 CLRP.

Overall, Federal and local revenues as a proportion of total have declined (from the percen­tages in the 2006 CLRP) to 18 and 12 percent, respectively.  State (including the District of Columbia) sources and transit fares are now playing an increasing role (39 percent and 24 percent of the total revenues, respectively).  Tolls/Bonds and private sources account for 7 percent of total revenues.

Regarding revenue projections for each jurisdiction, the summary shows that in the District., Federal revenues constitute 25 percent of its revenues with the District contributing the remaining 75 percent.  For Maryland the revenue contributions are Federal – 16 percent, state – 59 percent, local – 18 percent, and tolls/private – 7 percent.  In Virginia, the contri­butions are 13 percent Federal, 38 percent state sources, locals -23 percent, tolls/‌private – 20 percent, and fares -6 percent. 

The revenues shown in Table 1 exclude the WMATA request to the jurisdictions for reve­nues for projects identified as to be funded by “extension” of Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008 type funds for WMATA rehabilitation beyond 2020, for which neither the required Federal legislation is in place nor any agreement by the juris­dictions to match these funds is in place.  If enacted, this “continuation” of the Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008 type funding would identify an additional $7.5 billion for WMATA capital investments after 2020, with half from Federal grants and the other half from the three jurisdictions over the 20 years beyond 2020 when the current Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008 funding will end.  For the pur­poses of this plan, a ridership constraint will be imposed post 2020, as has occurred in past plans where there were capital shortfalls.

Expenditures

Table 2 summarizes the total estimated expenditures or costs in year of expenditure dollars for the 30-year period from 2011 through 2040. The rows in the table show expenditures for the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia jurisdictions with four modal breakouts:  highway, local transit, commuter rail, and WMATA support with each broken down into two major categories: operations/preservations and expansion. Operations, maintenance, and preservation continue to be about 70 percent of expenditures. 

At the bottom of the table, the rows show a WMATA Summary of expenses for WMATA (which already are included in prior rows of the table) for the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia and other non-jurisdictional sources.

Table 2a, shows the forecast capital expenditures (already included in Table 2) by source for the major regionally significant projects in the 2010 CLRP.  Costs are identified for new expansion projects for both highways and public transportation, including the entire Dulles Rail corridor, HOT lanes and bus ser­vices on I-95/I-395, HOT lanes on the Virginia Beltway, the Columbia Pike streetcar in Virginia; the Intercounty Connector in Maryland, the Nice Bridge, the Purple Line, and the Corridor Cities Transitway in Maryland; and a District streetcar line, the 11th Street Bridge, and the South Capitol Street Corridor projects in the District.

Observations about Forecasted Expenditures

Seventy percent of future transportation expenditures will be devoted to the maintenance and operations of the region’s transit and highway systems.  For highways, more expenditures are anticipated on operations and preservation than on expansion or special projects. For local transit, commuter rail, and WMATA, operations and preservation also will constitute the vast majority of expenditures.

Over the 30-year period, public transportation (local transit, commuter rail and WMATA) is projected to require 64 percent of the region’s total expenditures with highways taking up 36 percent.  WMATA will require about 51 percent while local transit and commuter rail make up about 13 percent.

Overall, WMATA operating costs are expected to escalate at a faster rate than general inflation. The total annual operating costs of WMATA are projected to increase from  $1.4 billion in 2010 to $4.4 billion in 2040 with a 30-year total of YOE $84 billion (out of the total WMATA expenditures of $113.8 billion, inclusive of Dulles Corridor Rail).  Thus, even while WMATA anticipates maintaining the operating cost to farebox ratios (farebox recovery ratios) at the present levels for each of their services, the subsidies are likely to increase in absolute terms.

An examination of WMATA operating costs and subsidy requests suggests a total operating cost subsidy ($37.7 billion) escalating from $590 million in 2010 to $2,123 million (a 360 percent increase) in 2040 with modal increases of Metro Bus $348 million to $1,080 million; Metro Rail $162 million to $418 million; and Metro Access $80 million to $625 million.  A closer examination of subsidies by WMATA submodes (Bus, Rail, and MetroAccess) shows that while Metro Rail subsidies are expected to esca­late at a modest rate, the Metro Bus and, especially, MetroAccess subsidies are forecast to increase more rapidly.  For instance, the total operating subsidy for the 2010 CLRP is projected to be approximately $37.7 billion.  Of this amount, $17 billion (Bus – $9.5 billion, Rail – $3.5 billion, and MetroAccess – $5 billion) would be needed over the last 10 years (2031-2040).

Differences Between Revenues in CLRP and WMATA Expenditures Requests

There are two cases where the jurisdictions did not include projected revenues in the CLRP at the levels WMATA forecast its expenditures. Table 3 below shows the differences between the WMATA request for expenditures and the revenues ultimately included in the financially constrained plan.  The first difference is in the WMATA capital request and reflects an assumption by the District, Maryland and Virginia not to assume the continuation of revenues post 2020 for capital projects similar to the funding in the Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008.  The second difference is a lower revenue commitment by the District of Columbia for WMATA’s operating costs.  The District has determined that it will follow its own recent precedents as well as precedents elsewhere in the region and will utilize alternative service delivery methods rather than as much utilization of Metrobus and MetroAccess services as in the past.  The District intends to meet the same service levels as are anticipated by WMATA, but by using alternative providers with lower operating costs.

Transit Ridership is Constrained

As in prior analyses, the post-2020 shortfall in WMATA capital funding for system capacity investments will be addressed with a transit ridership constraint for trips to or through the core.  Because funding has not yet been identified to accommodate all of the projected WMATA ridership growth, a method that has been applied since the 2000 CLRP is used to limit the projected ridership to be consistent with the available funding for the capacity improvements. 

The funding uncertainties affecting the Metrorail system capacity and levels of service beyond 2020 were explicitly accounted for by constraining transit ridership to or through the core area to 2020 levels.  The transit constraint method is applied during the travel demand modeling process as part of the air quality conformity analysis of the CLRP.  First, unconstrained origin and destination trip tables are produced for the years 2020, 2030, and 2040.  Constrained transit trip tables are then created for 2030 and 2040 by inserting 2020 totals for the transit trip patterns that correspond to trips into or through the core area containing the maximum load points in the rail system.  The transit person trips that cannot be accommodated are then allocated back to the auto person trip tables, resulting in increased daily automobile trips and vehicle emissions. As in prior analyses, the post-2020 shortfall in WMATA capital funding for system capacity investments will be addressed with a transit ridership constraint for trips to or through the core.  Because funding has not yet been identified to accommodate all of the projected WMATA ridership growth, a method that has been applied since the 2000 CLRP is used to limit the projected ridership to be consistent with the available funding for the capacity improvements. 

The funding uncertainties affecting the Metrorail system capacity and levels of service beyond 2020 were explicitly accounted for by constraining transit ridership to or through the core area to 2020 levels.  The transit constraint method is applied during the travel demand modeling process as part of the air quality conformity analysis of the CLRP.  First, unconstrained origin and destination trip tables are produced for the years 2020, 2030, and 2040.  Constrained transit trip tables are then created for 2030 and 2040 by inserting 2020 totals for the transit trip patterns that correspond to trips into or through the core area containing the maximum load points in the rail system.  The transit person trips that cannot be accommodated are then allocated back to the auto person trip tables, resulting in increased daily automobile trips and vehicle emissions.  

District of Columbia Service Delivery Strategies

The difference shown in Table 3 for operating for WMATA operating request versus funding commitment is due to D.C.’s decision to utilize alternative service delivery methods to provide the Metrobus and MetroAccess service levels which have been projected through the future.  WMATA’s future expenditure estimate is based on current systems of service delivery, particularly for bus and MetroAccess services.  D.C’s estimate of revenue reflects its assumption that the service delivery systems for WMATA’s bus and MetroAccess services will be different which will help reduce the projected expenditure by $2.761 billion.  Metrobus and MetroAccess services account for about 80 percent of the projected total D.C. WMATA operating subsidy allocation over time.

The other jurisdictions within the region already utilize such alternative service delivery methods for these types of services.  For Northern Virginia, 50 percent of the total public transportation operating and preservation expenditures will be for non-WMATA operating and preservation expenditures, with a comparable figure of about 38 percent for Suburban Maryland.  The District’s recent experience indicates that the circulator type bus services (which operate in the most congested area of the region) are provided at an operating cost of $93 per bus hour versus the regional average of $141 per hour region-wide operating cost for Metrobus, which would amount to about a 34 percent cost reduction if substitute service methods were to be fully utilized. 

The current regional average cost per MetroAccess trip is $38.  Under an alternative ser-vice delivery option, such as a D.C. same-day paratransit service, utilizing taxi sedans and wheelchair accessible taxicabs, the average cost per taxi trip could range from $14 to $16 given that many of the D.C. trips would be short.  Both taxi sedans and wheelchair accessible taxicabs can be utilized for paratransit, as only about 20 percent of MetroAccess users are in wheelchairs.  The D.C. Wheelchair Accessible Taxicab Pilot Program being implemented by the TPB through a Federal New Freedom grant has introduced 20 wheel-chair accessible taxicabs into service in the District between January and July 2010.  Demand for the service in the first six months of the pilot from private-pay customers has been growing steadily.  The TPB also has awarded the D.C. Office of Aging a New Freedom grant to expand a taxi voucher program that could shift trips away from MetroAccess and onto taxicabs.  Other demonstration projects funded by the TPB’s New Freedom grant program include travel training for people with disabilities on how to use the fixed route service rather than MetroAccess.  The D.C. Center for Independent Living, in coordination with WMATA, currently is operating such a program.  Another way for the District to improve access to the fixed route system for people with disabilities is to invest in improved pedestrian infrastructure and bus stop facilities.

Table 3 indicates that the D.C. WMATA operating subsidy allocation shortfall in terms of year of expenditure dollars is $2.761 billion out of $13.930 billion, a difference of about 20 percent.  Based on the cost savings experienced by D.C. in its current services, it would be plausible for D.C. to achieve the reductions which it intends to achieve in operating subsidy costs if it were to adopt more extensively the types of alternative service delivery methods it has recently begun to use and which already are being utilized very extensively by the other jurisdictions for large portions of their services.  The District thus is expected to be capable of implementing service delivery options which maintain the service levels assumed in the CLRP, using the levels of revenues forecast by the District.