By 2040, the National Capital Region will experience significant growth both in population and employment. This growth will fuel a large increase in the demand for transportation–adding more cars to the road and more passengers on buses and trains. As the financial analysis shows, less than a third of the CLRP’s expenditures are going towards new capacity to meet this new demand. The region will see a dramatic increase in congestion both on the roads and on Metro.
This section the projected patterns of this growth and its effects. Where will these new jobs and people go? How will our travel patterns change? Given the current land-use plans and planned road and transit improvements, which parts of the region will experience the most congestion? How does this congestion impact our ability to get to work? And finally, how does the plan help improve the region’s air quality?
Regional transportation demand forecasts for the plan, developed from the TPB travel forecasting process, provide background information on the overall expected performance of the 2012 CLRP. The travel forecasting process utilizes land-use forecasts of households and jobs from Round 8.1 of the Cooperative Forecast*, together with a model of the expected transportation system in future years to predict the amounts and types of travel by persons and vehicles, and how well the system responds to those travel patterns. The analysis uses Version 2.3 of the MWCOG Travel Demand Model which incorporates 2007/08 Household Travel Survey inputs and summarizes travel behavior using 3,722 unique Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) for the modeled area. This section contains information on changes in demographics and travel characteristics, such as vehicle miles of travel (VMT), vehicle trips, transit trips, transit mode share, and accessibility measures.
* The Cooperative Forecast is collaboratively developed by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and the local jurisdictions so that each jurisdiction grows at realistic rates given projected regional growth. This produces a consistent set of long-range economic and demographic forecasts for use in metropolitan and local planning programs.
The travel demand data are based travel characteristics in the TPB planning area. This includes all trips that originate, end, or pass through the planning area. Of all of the trips on the region’s roadways, 86% both originate and end within the planning area boundaries. An addition 13% either start in one of the planning area’s jurisdictions and end outside, or start outside and end inside. Only 1% of all trips captured by the travel demand data are through trips that begin and end outside of the planning area. These figures remain consistent through 2040.