CHANGES IN ACCESSIBILITY FOR DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS

One way of assessing the performance of the CLRP is by analyzing how accessibility to jobs by automobile and transit changes as a result of the plan.  Accessibility is measured in terms of the number of jobs accessible within 45 minutes by these modes of transportation, and changes to this measure due to the 2010 CLRP are illustrated is the accessibility analysis. The following investigation takes the accessibility analysis a step further by including an assessment of accessibility gains and losses across minority and transportation disadvantaged population groups.  Specifically the assessment looks at how accessibility will change between 2010 and 2040 as a result of the implementation of the 2010 CLRP.  

Demographic data used in this analysis comes from the 2010 Census, 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5-year averages, and the Census 2000.  A more details explanation of why multiple data sources were necessary can be found in the description of limitations of the analysis.

Change in Accessibility with the 2010 CLRP

The following charts describe changes in job accessibility for specific minority and transportation disadvantaged population groups. The impacts on these groups are measured in terms of "benefits" and "burdens" of the plan.  A gain in job accessibility is considered a “benefit” of the plan, whereas a loss in job accessibility is considered a “burden”.  The pattern of gains and losses in accessibility is similar across the general population and all minority and disadvantaged population groups and across both modes.  Significant gains and minimal losses in accessibility will be realized by all groups. 

Approximately 4% of the general population will experience losses in automobile accessibility due to the 2010 CLRP, and less than or equal percentages of all minority and disadvantaged populations will experience losses.   All minority and disadvantaged groups will experience greater gains than the general population, except for the African American population group who will receive slightly less benefit from the plan.  The Asian population group will experience the greatest benefits in auto accessibility.   

The general population and all minority and disadvantaged groups will experience minimal losses in transit accessibility to jobs as a result of the 2010 CLRP.  All of these population groups will experiences greater moderate to significant gains in accessibility than the general population (48%), and the low-income population group will realize the most gains out of any group.  Just over 61% of the low-income population group will experience gains in jobs accessibility by transit from the 2010 CLRP.  These data suggest that the changes in auto accessibility due to the 2010 CLRP do not have disproportionate, adverse impacts on minority of transportation disadvantaged groups.   


Average Accessibility with the 2010 CLRP

The number of jobs accessible throughout different parts of the region also changes between 2010 and 2040 as a result of the 2010 CLRP.  Since some parts of the region are expected to gain and other parts of the region are expected to lose accessibility to jobs over this period of time, the average number of jobs accessible within 45 minutes changes. 

The average resident in the Washington region could reach 572,000 jobs in 45 minutes or less by automobile in 2010.  Due to changes in accessibility and job locations, the average resident will able to reach 627,000 jobs by automobile by 2040, which is an increase of 55,000 jobs.  This increase is similar across all population groups in the region. 

Transit improvements were emphasized in the 2010 CLRP, and because of this the average number of jobs accessible within 45 minutes is forecasted to increase significantly between 2010 and 2040.  In 2010 the average resident in the region could access 350,000 jobs within a 45 minute transit commute.  In 2040, this figure will increase to 484,000, or an increase of 134,000 jobs.  All of the minority and disadvantaged population groups are expected to experience a significant increase in the average number of jobs accessible by transit, with the exception of the Asian population group.  The average number of jobs accessible to the average Asian resident will only increase slightly by 6,000 jobs.

Summary of Analysis Results

  • Some portions of the region are expected to experience a decrease in accessibility to jobs by auto between 2010 and 2040.  
  • Across the whole region, the average number of jobs accessible by auto within 45 minutes is forecast to increase modestly, by about 10% over the next 30 years, primarily due to forecast steady employment growth.
  • The average number of jobs accessible by transit is forecast to increase more substantially, by about 38%, due to both transit improvements and employment growth.
  • Changes in accessibility to jobs by auto and by transit do not appear to have disproportionate, adverse impacts on minority and transportation disadvantaged population groups.
  • The benefits and burdens of the plan appear to be fairly distributed.
  • The number of jobs accessible by transit is considerably less than the number of jobs accessible by auto in both 2010 and 2030. 
  • Because the low-income, disabled, Black/African American, and Hispanic/Latino groups are less likely to travel by automobile than the general population, they may not reap all of the benefits of gains in auto access due to the implementation of the 2010 CLRP.