A comprehensive financial plan was prepared for the 2006 RTP. It reviews and updates projected transportation revenues and costs for operating, maintaining, and expanding the regional transportation system through 2030. It includes forecasts of transportation revenues and expenditures for the Washington Metropolitan Region for the 24-year period of 2007 to 2030. The forecasts were prepared by the transportation implementing agencies and jurisdictions, with technical integration and documentation provided by consultants. All of the forecasts and assumptions were reviewed extensively at eight meetings between July 2005 and July 2006 by a working group of the TPB Technical Committee. The TPB was briefed on the draft financial analysis at its July 19, 2006 meeting.
The total $109.8 billion in revenues for the 2006 CLRP are projected to equal the estimated expenditures. The projections are in constant 2006 dollars of revenues and expenditures though 2030 for the total region, Suburban Maryland, Northern Virginia, and the District of Columbia by mode and category.
The financial plan demonstrates that the estimated revenues from existing and proposed sources that can reasonably expected to be available equal the estimated costs of expanding, while adequately maintaining and operating, the highway and transit system in the region from 2007 through 2030. Click here for the full financial analysis.
During 2006, progress was made in Congress and the legislatures of Maryland, Virginia, and District of Columbia to identify an additional $3 billion in revenues ($1.5 billion in federal with matching funds from the Davis Bill and $1.5 billion from dedicated sources in the District and states) for WMATA's future capital needs. However, for this CLRP the $3 billion in new WMATA revenue is not assumed. To address this situation where funding has not yet been identified to accommodate all of the projected WMATA ridership growth, a method that has been applied since the 2000 CLRP was used to limit the projected ridership to be consistent with the available funding for the capacity improvements.
The funding uncertainties affecting the Metrorail system capacity and levels of service beyond 2010 was explicitly accounted for by constraining transit ridership to or through the core area to 2010 levels. The transit constraint method is applied during the travel demand modeling process as part of the air quality conformity analysis of the CLRP. First, unconstrained origin and destination trip tables are produced for the years 2010, 2020, and 2030. Constrained transit trip tables are then created for 2020 and 2030 by inserting 2010 totals for the transit trip patterns that correspond to trips into or through the core area containing the maximum load points in the rail system. The transit person trips that cannot be accommodated are then allocated back to the auto person trip tables, resulting in increased daily automobile trips and vehicle emissions.
New Funding is Offset by Increasing Costs
On average, annual funding for transportation in the region has actually grown by 18 percent since the 2003 forecast. However, rising construction costs are eating up those funding increases. In the last two years, construction costs have jumped about 26% (13% per year). In contrast, construction costs rose only 17 % over the previous eight years (2% per year).
©2007 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments