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Regional Mobility & Accessibility Study

Results to Date - What Do the Scenarios Tell Us?

Click here to view the presentation on Results to Date of the Study.

The first phase of the study analyzed the land-use scenarios without adding any new transportation facilities. Although preliminary, the data from this initial phase produced some interesting findings:

Land use matters. Even in the absence of transportation improvements, changing land use can produce positive impacts. Under all the scenarios, the anticipated growth in morning congestion would be slowed. Most of the scenarios would also increase transit use.

Short-term impacts are modest. Change takes a long time. The scenario study is looking at forecasted impacts in 2030--which is not very long from now. Most jobs and housing that will be in place in 2030 are already in place today. In fact, 72 percent of households assumed for 2030 were already in place in 2000. The study assumed that this existing development remained unchanged, and therefore it only shifted new houses and jobs—those created between 2010 and 2030. For households, that meant that only 15 percent of households in 2030 were in play for the study. The scenarios inevitably would have a bigger impact 40 or 50 years from now, but that more distant future would be much more difficult to analyze.

Scenario impacts may be large locally but small regionally. The scale of impact is not just a question of time. It’s also a question of place. The regional scope of the analysis tends to dilute the impacts of the scenarios. Land-use changes that could have profound effects on specific communities and neighborhoods may be minimal when we analyze the entire region, which stretches from the Pennsylvania border to the lower reaches of the Potomac River.

For more details about the regional and local impacts of the different scenarios, see the presentations made at various public forums around the region.

For additional information about the study, click on the links below:

Study Overview

Study Background

Alternative Land-Use Scenarios

Alternative Transportation Scenarios

Presentations Made at Public Forums

Program Contacts

Robert Griffiths - (202) 962-3280