The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) today released its analysis of the proposed base closings and realignments’ effect on the National Capital Region.  The study focused on how the Department of Defense (DoD) recommendations would affect future employment, traffic congestion and air quality in 2010 and 2020 as compared to COG’s adopted forecasts.

Key findings in the COG BRAC analysis:

• Employment forecasts for 2010 would initially drop by 15,000 jobs in the metropolitan Washington region, followed by an increase to 13,700 more jobs than original projections indicated the region would have in 2020.

• Jurisdictions expected to see an initial employment decline related to BRAC changes would include Arlington County, Alexandria and the District of Columbia.  

• The region would see approximately 8,500 more homes in 2020 than originally anticipated. Prince William County would experience the greatest increase with 3,000 more households.

• Forecasted use of public transit would be reduced by approximately 1.84 percent in 2010. Automobile commutes would be expected to increase by roughly 26,800 trips -- less than 1 percent – at the same time. By 2020, regional transit trips would be 0.52 percent less than originally expected. 

“Our technical analysis predicts that BRAC may not have an enormous impact on the region as a whole.  At the local level, however, when compared to our adopted forecasts, BRAC may have a significant effect on several jurisdictions,” said COG Executive Director David Robertson. 

The COG Board of Directors will review and discuss the findings on July 13 during its monthly meeting, including any policy actions or recommendations.

The analysis was performed by COG staff and the Center for Regional Analysis of George Mason University. 

On May 13, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld sent the recommendations to the independent Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission.  The BRAC Commission is holding two hearings in the National Capital Region today, in Washington D.C. and Arlington.  Tomorrow, there will be a hearing in Baltimore.  The BRAC Commission must report its final decisions to the President no later than September 8, 2005. 

Please refer to the following links for COG's BRAC analysis:

BRAC Report: Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations (1.5 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix A-Base Listing DC-MD-VA (1 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix B-DoD UFC standards (2.7 MB)

BRAC Report: Appendix C-NCPC Urban Design Standards (1.1 MB)

BRAC Report: Appendix D-GMU Methodolgy (1.2 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix E-Nov 04 COG NCPC Security Conference (1.3 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix F-NAIOP article on ISC and UFC (1.9 MB PDF)